Mike Stachowiak

Ars Technica just published a great article on the total computational power and storage capacity of all the world’s computers.  Conclusions?  The total “instructions per second that human kind can carry out on its general-purpose computers in 2007 are in the same ballpark area as the maximum number of nerve impulses executed by one human brain per second.”  Equally intriguing, the total world-wide storage capacity is roughly the same as a single adult human’s DNA.  Roughly speaking, the total power of all the world’s computers are equivalent to one human.

Before you draw too many conclusions about man’s intellectual dominance over machines, bear in mind they’re gaining on us, and gaining fast.  According to Moore’s Law, processing power is doubling every 2 years (some would argue 18 months, but I’ll stick with the conservative measurement for this discussion) .  Hard disk capacity follows a similar trend, doubling in capacity on the same cycle.  On the flip side, human cognitive capacity is stagnant.

Taking it a step further, in 2008 it was estimated there were roughly 1 billion computers in the world.  If Moore’s law holds, in 10 years each computer will have 32 times the current processing power (a doubling every two years for a total of 2^5 = 32x).  In 20 years, computers will be 1000x more powerful.  Somewhere close to 46 years from now a single computer will be 1 billions times more powerful, or as powerful as all computers in the world today.  The computer on your desktop will be your intellectual equivalent by 2057.

It seems Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity is just around the corner.

(Note: these calculations are incredibly simplified, but do provide an interesting estimate)